Al Carlson

Franchise Rating

A 0–100 grade of a player’s total seasonal value to a franchise. It is not “who scored the most.” Franchise Rating blends on-court performance, how much of the team they carried, whether that load produced winning, and contract context.

How To Read: S / S+ is a franchise cornerstone. A-range is a high-value starter. B-range is useful. C / D means limited or negative franchise value that year. Higher is always better.

Example: LeBron James on the 2012–13 Heat is the Franchise Rating profile: two-way production, a huge share of the offense, and a title. Kobe Bryant scoring 35 a night in 2005–06 can still look like a scoring star and land lower in Franchise Rating if winning and the contract do not match.

Potential Rating

A forward-looking 0–100 grade of how high Franchise Rating can go next season if the current trajectory continues. Shown for NBA players under 25. Same letter scale as Franchise Rating.

How To Read: A or better on a 19–22-year-old is a real “this could be a star” flag. High Potential Rating with middling Franchise Rating is a breakout-watch profile. Age 25+ does not receive Potential Rating.

Example: Kevin Durant in 2008–09 Oklahoma City — 21 years old, 25 points a night on a 23-win team — is the Potential Rating idea. Franchise Rating can sit in the B-range while Potential Rating is already A because unused minutes and efficiency still point up.

Performance Rating

The “how well did they hoop?” number. Volume, efficiency, role difficulty, and defense are combined so empty scoring and elite two-way play are not treated the same. Independent of salary and winning narrative.

How To Read: High 80s–90s and a top-20 rank is star-level. Mid-pack is a normal rotation year. Low 50s–60s is limited positive on-court impact. If availability is too low, rank may be withheld.

Example: Kobe Bryant winning the 2005–06 scoring title is not automatically the league-best Performance Rating. Tim Duncan that same era can trail in volume and still grade higher if efficiency and two-way play are the difference.

Impact Contribution Share

The share of a team’s production / success load attributed to one player. Regular Season Impact Contribution Share and Postseason Impact Contribution Share are tracked separately. Stored as percentage points: 22.0 means 22%.

How To Read: ~30%+ is a primary engine. ~20–30% is a clear number-one or strong number-two. ~12–20% is a starter with real creation. Under ~5% is deep bench. Impact Contribution Share is load, not quality — pair it with Impact Success Rating.

Example: Allen Iverson in the mid-2000s often sat in the high 20s for Impact Contribution Share — the offense ran through him. Dwyane Wade on the 2012–13 Heat next to LeBron James could live in the mid-teens without being “worse.”

Impact Success Rating

How much a player’s contributions translate into team success. Impact Contribution Share answers “how much of the team is this player?” Impact Success Rating answers “did that actually help the team win?” Playoff Impact Success Rating uses Team Postseason Score instead of raw win percentage.

How To Read: High Impact Success Rating + high Impact Contribution Share = true engine of a good team. High Impact Contribution Share + low Impact Success Rating = heavy usage that is not producing wins. Modest Impact Contribution Share + high Impact Success Rating = complementary star on a contender.

Example: LeBron James on the 66-win 2008–09 Cavaliers: high Impact Contribution Share and high Impact Success Rating. Allen Iverson putting up 31 on a lottery Sixers team: Impact Contribution Share looks like a star, Impact Success Rating often does not.

Year Of Experience

How many NBA seasons the player has already completed. Shown as a whole number on the player page.

How To Read: Rookies sit at 0. Lookout badges require Year Of Experience = 1 (second NBA season) plus an A-range Potential Rating.

Example: LeBron James as a second-year 20-year-old with A-range Potential Rating is the Lookout profile. A 10-year veteran like Tim Duncan in 2006–07 does not receive Potential Rating even if Franchise Rating is elite.

Potential Win Shares

How many win shares a player could produce given age, role, and current production — a ceiling-style companion to actual win shares. An input to Potential Rating.

How To Read: Compare to actual Win Shares in Advanced. Potential well above actual means unused minutes or role. Potential about equal to actual means they are already eating the minutes the model thinks they can handle.

Example: A 20-year-old with a strong PER in 18 minutes and 3.0 win shares can still show Potential Win Shares of 7 or 8 — the model saying that per-minute level would jump if the workload did.

Contract Value Rating

A 1–10 contract-efficiency score. It compresses Overpay Index into an intuitive grade: 10 is elite surplus value, 1 is a highly overpaid deal.

How To Read: Higher is better. 10/10 is a bargain relative to production. Low Contract Value Rating flags a contract that is expensive for what the team is getting.

Example: Dirk Nowitzki on a max in 2011 can still be a high Contract Value Rating because the production matches the money. The same dollars on a declining star collapses Contract Value Rating and usually Franchise Rating with it.

Overpay Index

Compares compensation to on-court value. Higher Overpay Index means expensive relative to production; lower Overpay Index means surplus value / a bargain.

How To Read: Lower is better — the opposite of Franchise Rating, Performance Rating, Impact Contribution Share, Impact Success Rating, and Contract Value Rating.

Example: Steve Nash on a mid-level Suns deal in the mid-2000s often had a tiny Overpay Index. A declining star on a long max can post an Overpay Index well above 1.0.

Cap Hole / Availability

Cap Hole is salary-cap space tied to a player when availability or production does not match the money. Availability % is the share of possible games actually played.

How To Read: Lower Cap Hole is better. Higher Availability is better. Missed time on a large contract is how cap gets “stuck.”

Example: Yao Ming in 2010–11 — a large salary and a season lost to injury — is how a Cap Hole shows up even if the on-court Performance Rating, when healthy, was excellent.

Letter Scale (FR / POT)

Same 0–100 score behind every letter. Think report-card grade plus the GPA underneath.

IP is not a bad grade. It means the model is waiting for more of the season.

Season badges

Peak is a single career-high OVR summit. Prime is a three-year window. Lookout is a second-year A-range POT flag, not an award.

Example: A player can have several Prime seasons and only one Peak. Lookout on a 20-year-old means “pay attention,” not “finished product.”